The Bullwhip Effect in a Multi Level Supply Chain Network

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THE BULLWHIP-EFFECT IN A MULTI LEVEL SUPPLY
CHAIN NETWORK
Research in Progress
Reisich, Friedrich, University of Duisburg-Essen, 2247800, Essen, Germany, friedrich.reisich@stud.uni-due.de Abstract
Forrester discovered the amplification and oscillation of order information in supply chains about 55 years ago and called it the Bullwhip Effect. Since then researchers look for reasons and try to find countermeasures. Most of the countermeasures which were formulated in the last decades are based on experiments with simple linear supply chain models consisting of two to four serial levels. In reality supply chains are complex and dynamic systems. In this paper we developed a dynamic simulation model of a complex simulation network and statistically examine whether the countermeasures described in the scientific literature work or do not work. The preliminary results shows us that at least one countermeasure which works perfectly in linear supply chains is also suitable for complex supply chain networks.
Keywords: Bullwhip Effect, Forrester Effect, Whiplash Effect, Supply Chain Networks..

IS Research Fundamentals

1

1 Introduction
The Bullwhip Effect or Forrester Effect is a major problem in supply chains. It was first discovered by
Forrester (1972) who realized that variations of demand increase up as one moves up the supply chain from the ultimate customer to the ultimate producer. This phenomenon is considered one of the main reasons for inefficiencies in supply chain. Since then reducing the Bullwhip Effect in a supply chain became one of the main goals in the supply chain management (Göpfert, 2004, p. 33). By reducing the
Bullwhip Effect companies can generate numerous competitive advantages, for example increasing the delivery reliability by 15%, decreasing the overhead costs by 20%, shorten the order fulfillment time by 55% and…...

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