Probablistic Roject

In: Science

Submitted By vijay3091
Words 9475
Pages 38
Application of Probabilistic methods to predict individual match results in the Indian Premier league (IPL):
Vijayakumar Ramamoorthy1, Saravana kumar Selvaraj2
1,2

Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St.John’s,
NL, Canada, A1B 3X5
Abstract
The Indian Premier League is one of the professional Twenty20 cricket league which is conducted in India annually by franchise teams representing Indian cities. The IPL is the mostwatched Twenty20 league worldwide. In 2010, the IPL became the first sporting event to be broadcast live on YouTube. The brand value of the 2014 Indian Premier League was estimated to be US$7.2 billion. Cricket is one of the game which includes lots of betting and predictions. Due to this reason many researchers try out different methods to introduce new models to predict the result of the match. In this report we are making an attempt to predict the outcomes of some of the most important matches that will be played in the Indian Premier league in the forth coming year from April 8 to May 29. We use the Poisson distribution to create a model with which we will be able to predict (1) if there is any Home ground advantage to the home team, 2) Probability of the total runs per over that will be scored in the match by individual teams, finally we will predict which team will win the match using this model. We use the data from the previous seasons 2014 and 2015 to predict these matches. This model introduces you to predicting individual matches which can be further developed into an advanced model with which you can predict the season results and individual scores of a single batsmen.
Introduction to Cricket and Betting:
Cricket is the second most popular game in the world only next to football. The latest form of cricket is the Twenty20 or T20 cricket. It involves two teams with each team…...

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